VRC Oaks Preview
RACE 8 – GROUP 1 KENNEDY OAKS (2500m)
TROPICAL SQUALL $4.40 (Ladbrokes fixed-win odds at time of publishing)
Why she can win: She led at a fast speed in the Ethereal Stakes and wasn’t beaten far. Carried 59kg there and now meets her rivals at level weights and is arguably the best-performed filly in the race.
Why she can’t win: The query looks to be whether she can run a strong 2500m.
Why she can win: Started favourite in the Wakeful and was the run of the race given the pattern on the day due to strong southerly winds. She maps for a nice run behind the speed.
Why she can’t win: She is unproven at 2500m and has to handle the relatively quick back-up.
AMAZONIAN LASS $8.50
Why she can win: Led at a fast speed and kept going to win the Wakeful beating several key rivals.
Why she can’t win: Was probably flattered by the wind on the day and now doesn’t have that advantage and has to contend with an extra 500m.
SERVED COLD $9
Why she can win: Beat the boys, including the subsequent Victoria Derby fourth placegetter Kosgei, last start and has the advantage of a lead-up run over 2200m. Stable commands respect in the race and has Blake Shinn in the saddle.
Why she can’t win: Draws wide and might have to risk working early or go right back.
HARLOW MIST $13
Why she can win: This has always been her target and might appreciate the rise in distance.
Why she can’t win: Had every chance in the Wakeful where others were stronger late and now draws wide and may not get as soft of a run.
COCO SUN $31
Why she can win: Hit the line strongly in the Wakeful, looks potentially suited rising in distance and gets Damian Lane on.
Why she can’t win: She lacks a turn of foot and the ability to quicken on the turn.
Why she can win: Hit the line very strongly in the Ethereal Stakes, looks suited rising in distance and is drawn to settle much closer than what she has in her last couple of starts from wide barriers.
Why she can’t win: Having her fifth start in her first preparation.
Why she can win: Fastest closing sectionals of the Wakeful Stakes, looks suited rising in distance and gets Mark Zahra on.
Why she can’t win: She probably ends up a long way back in the run from a wide barrier.
WINGS OF SONG $61
Why she can win: Hit the line strongly last start against older horses.
Why she can’t win: Rises sharply in class, was well-beaten in the Ethereal and likely ends up a long way back from the barrier.
ETHEL MAUDE $23
Why she can win: Very good late and through the line in the Manifold, then was dominant winning her maiden last start in fast time rising in distance.
Why she can’t win: Rising sharply in class on last start and might have to go back from the barrier.
PEAKY RIDGE $126
Why she can win: Last-start winner that brings some completely different form.
Why she can’t win: Beat a moderate maiden field in slow time and this is significantly stronger.
Why she can win: Was wide without cover two starts ago and won three starts ago.
Why she can’t win: Hasn’t beaten a runner home in her last two starts and ran last beaten 18L in the Wakeful.
ANOTHER YOU $61
Why she can win: Outperformed her price in the Etheral, maps for a soft run and might appreciate the rise in distance.
Why she can’t win: There were better runs in the Ethereal and this is a stronger race.
EVERLASTING KISS $67
Why she can win: Was among the strongest late in the Oaks trial and then had to do too much work on a fast speed last start in the Ethereal Stakes. She maps for a much softer run here.
Why she can’t win: Still a maiden and would need to go to a clear new level.