Rosehill Winners – Tips For Saturday 19th March (Golden Slipper Day)

Rosehill Winners – Tips For Saturday 19th March (Golden Slipper Day)

 

 

By Brad Gray

Race 1 – 12:10PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)

The majority of 2. Highly Desired’s threats look to be backmarkers which sets him up well, rolling forward from the wide draw with likely leader 5. Lord Heron. He is a no-nonsense style of gelding and he looks beautifully paired with Tim Clark. The seven-year-old tackled the Rosehill 1500m in the Four Pillars last preparation on a good track and boxed on to run sixth, beaten 2.8L by Kiss Sum. There doesn’t look to be the same amount of pressure in this and he loves getting his toe into the ground. He resumed with a typically dogged win at Goulburn first up over 1300m with the runner up certain to go straight past him halfway down the straight but he won going away on the line. There will be plenty flashing late on Saturday but there’s every chance he’d have already stolen a winning break.

Dangers: 4. Always Sure needs everything to fall into place but another win isn’t far away. He was just exposed a touch too early last start in a Midway behind Military Expert and peaked on his run. His sole win last preparation was by pinching runs through the field. 13. Mahagoni last ran fourth in a Listed race in the UK. The import did enough in his two trials for David Payne to suggest he at the very least deserves a second look in this. 14. Stellar Performer is a mare building a brilliant record and love the way she won first up. The knock is the barrier. Otherwise she is top pick. 16. Achira could improve sharply with a positive ride. She led when beating Willowy at Goulburn last preparation. 3. Reformist and 12. Akhtar are both capable while 10. Catapult hasn’t raced with much luck in Midways in the past.

How To Play It: Highly Desired WIN

Race 2 – 12:45PM IRRESISTIBLE POOLS DARBY MUNRO STAKES (1200 METRES)

4. Mazu dodges the Group One Galaxy with Peter and Paul Snowden instead opting for the low road. Can see why being a horse that is building his confidence going through the grades. The son of Maurice returned a gelding this preparation and he hasn’t put a foot wrong. He lumped 59kg to victory first up in a deep BM78 before taking out the Listed Fireball in equally dominant fashion. He has transformed himself into a very straight forward sprinter that puts himself into a position, settles and then quickens. The set up is perfect again in this third up out to 1200m from the inside draw. Sam Clipperton won’t have to spend a penny to land in the box seat and providing the fence is fine, should make it three on the bounce.

Dangers: 14. Smirnova looms ominously as a big threat given her x-factor. She never, ever saw daylight at Moonee Valley first up over 955m as the $1.70 favourite. It was nothing more than a third barrier trial in the end. She won three races in a row in her first preparation, culminating in an explosive Canterbury win which flagged her as a Group class filly. 1. Shaquero was only two lengths off Wild Ruler first up last preparation with three of his four runs in Group One company. 5. Bacchanalia chases four straight, relishing the wet tracks late last year. The wetter the better for him as it’d also likely negate the wide draw too. 10. Omni Man comes out of a 64 at Gosford but he’ll give a sight while Victorian 8. Chartes also maps well.

How To Play It: Mazu WIN

Race 3 – 1:25PM QUEEN’S CUP (N E MANION CUP) (2400 METRES)

5. Zeyrek produced the best run of his Australian career last start in the Randwick City Stakes. It looked to be a combination of two key factors. It was the first time he has ever raced on a heavy track and he clearly relished it. The second element was the positive ride. After trying to find cover, Willy Pike quickly realised that the best move was to roll forward into second. That may have inadvertently uncovered the best way to ride the Frech import. He’ll get the chance to do exactly the same thing with 2. Knights Order drawn to his immediate inside. This is the five-year-old’s third campaign with the Hawkes stable and he has shown glimpses of form, running fourth in a Metrop on a good track, but it all looks to have clicked into place for him now and if we continue to get wet tracks over the autumn, he’ll continue running competitive races.

Dangers: 3. Mightybeel’s weapon is his turn of foot and it was nullified on the heavy track last start. He has seven lengths to make up on Zeyrek but a drying Rosehill track doesn’t make that an impossible task. 13. Surefire comes through a BM88 but he’s an import that has hit the ground running for Chris Waller and overcame some difficulties getting clear too. That’s now four wins from six starts. 2. Knights Order will give another sight from in front and he was first up when third to Zeyrek. 10. No Compromise is flying but again maps to give away a huge head start. It’s a similar knock on 6. Luncies who is also airborne but the wide draw likely sees him ridden with the Sydney Cup in mind.

How To Play It: Zeyrek WIN

Race 4 – 2:00PM BISLEY WORKWEAR EPONA STAKES (1900 METRES)

The gamble you’re taking with 1. Le Lude is simply whether she gets any luck from the gate. If she does, she should win on the strength of her last start inhalation of her rivals in the G3 Aspiration. The John Thompson-trained mare looks to have returned in the best form of her career as prior to that win she ran on into third behind Expat and Belluci Babe in the Millie Fox over 1300m. She controlled the race in the early stages so she was entitled to quicken but she certainly delivered, putting four lengths on Polly Grey. Yes, she carried just 53kg last start and this is a very different set up but the class mares are so well suited under the set weights and penalties conditions. Over to you Brock Ryan.

Dangers: 2. Harmony Rose’s recent form probably isn’t a fair reflection of her form. She drew a couple of horrendous barriers last preparation and struck a Heavy 10 first up this preparation in the G2 Guy Walter won by subsequent Group One winner Forbidden Love. She’s capable of improving sharply. 6. Galaxy Belle tackles Group company for the first time but there was arguably more depth to the BM88 she contested last start when second to Surefire. She’s well placed in this and is capable of finishing as well as any of her rivals here. 3. Our Intrigue tackles this race fresh but was well held by Le Lude when they clashed back in November (before turning the tables in the Matriarch) and Le Lude has returned better again. 7. Welsh Legend is a knockout hope first up over 1900m but draws to give away a big start.

How To Play It: Le Lude WIN

Race 5 – 2:40PM RANVET STAKES (2000 METRES)

“Stranger things have happened in small fields” will be line trotted out ahead of 5. Verry Elleegant being sent around a long odds on favourite in the Ranvet Stakes but you’ve got a better imagination than me if you can dream up a scenario where the champion mare is denied her 12th Group One win. It looks a gift after Think It Over and Duais went south to fight out the finish of the Australian Cup. There’s no Addeybb here this year either and he is the only horse to have ever beaten Verry Elleegant at 2000m or beyond in Sydney. Verry Elleegant comes here on the back of a typically tenacious win in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes last start. Whether she is second last or parks just in behind the two leaders shouldn’t matter. James McDonald will just get her comfortable and she’ll do the rest.

Dangers: There are only two other runners in single figure odds. Your likely leader 1. Angel Of Truth, who has raced against Verry Elleegant seven times in the past for a 7-0 drubbing. He did get within 1.3L of her last start. Out to 2000m on a track with the sting out sets up for him to run up to his best. Then there is David Payne’s talented mare 6. Montefilia who raced against Verry Elleegant for the first time in the Chipping Norton, to be beaten 2.6L. There was a lot to like about the way she worked through the line over the mile and this will top her off perfectly ahead of the Tancred third up out to 2400m, the same trip she won the Metrop over in the spring.

How To Play It: Verry Elleegant WIN

Race 6 – 3:15PM SKY RACING ACTIVE ROSEHILL GUINEAS (2000 METRES)

2. Converge got the better of 1. Anamoe for the first time in the Randwick Guineas. Settling positions were the difference in the end. Converge had the superior acceleration at the 400m and that won him the race. Tim Clark has ridden Converge in every single one of his 11 starts and was well aware that his ride has a dynamic 300m sprint. Clark used that explosive turn of foot perfectly and he’ll be out to do the same over 2000m. Anamoe was coming hard late, clocking a last 200m over a length quicker than Converge. Tactics will be critical. Can’t see Clark dragging Converge back with Anamoe so suspect he’ll chance his arm early by rolling forward with 6. Sword Point before seeking cover. There isn’t any speed drawn in barriers four or lower so he might get it too. At the price, happy to be with him.

Dangers: 1. Anamoe had lofty expectations on his head ahead of the autumn given his deeds over the spring and although he was beaten last start he still clocked the fourth quickest last 200m split across the meeting at the end of the mile. Has given the impression all campaign that he is looking for 2000m and would have been trained that way with the Queen Elizabeth his grand final. 3. Profondo was set an impossible task in the Australian Guineas first up when trapped deep. If he can find his Spring Champion form, he’s a player but is yet to meet either of the two aforementioned big guns yet. Sword Point will run a cheeky race at odds while 4. Forgot You will be working home strongly out to 2000m.

How To Play It: Converge WIN

Race 7 – 4:00PM THE AGENCY GEORGE RYDER STAKES (1500 METRES)

Reluctant to complicate things too much with 9. Forbidden Love presenting as the horse to beat again. The flying four-year-old mare tackles this on the back of a career best win in the G1 Canterbury Stakes where she put a space on another subsequent Group One winner in Lighthouse. She controlled the race from in front as the heavily backed $2.20 favourite and outside of 5. Riodini, there doesn’t look to be a lot of pressure here either. Imagine Hugh Bowman lets Riodini roll to the front and she pops into his slip stream. Forbidden Love won the Guy Walter from a similar position. First up she split Overpass and Anamoe. The form around her looks exceptional. Has to transfer that out to 1500m and on a soft track, as opposed to heavy, but she sets up beautifully once more.

Dangers: If Tommy Berry can hold a prominent spot on 2. Mo’unga from the low draw, we know he big possesses the finish to make Forbidden Love work for it. He kept chasing over 1400m first up. He’ll need every bit of the 1500m second up, however. 3. Private Eye clocked one of the fastest last 600m splits of the meeting when chasing home Forbidden Love first up. He’ll close the four length margin but will be cherry ripe for the Doncaster third up. 8. Colette produced a shocker in the Chipping Norton on a heavy track. It was simply too bad to be true in the context of her starting price. Riodini is capable of improving sharply on a drying track, while 10. Hungry Heart would also appreciate firmer footing.

How To Play It: Forbidden Love WIN

Race 8 – 4:45PM LONGINES GOLDEN SLIPPER (1200 METRES)

16. She’s Extreme has made steady improvement each time we’ve seen her step out and given how well she won last Saturday’s Sweet Embrace Stakes, if she finds another length off that, she has to be somewhere in the finish given the perfect set up. Prior to that win, like the way she rallied again late to run 12. Fireburn to less than a length at Randwick. The fillies have had the wood on the colts and geldings all season in Sydney. She’s Extreme is hard fit on the seven day back up, still trending upwards, maps beautifully to park in behind what should be a genuine speed and she handles all surfaces. A couple of her main rivals in the market could be feeling the pinch late. Not She’s Extreme, one of the hall marks of her three runs to date has been her late strength.

Dangers: It wasn’t a vintage running of the Blue Diamond but 1. Daumier doesn’t finds himself in a particularly deep Golden Slipper either. Sectionally, the Godolphin colt was as strong as anything else on the line and he maps to get the run of the race which makes it hard for 9. Revolutionary Miss11. Jacquinot and 6. Sebonack to turn the tables. There’s no questioning 8. Coolangatta talent but how do we confidently assess her on her best form given the two months between runs? The case for 10. Russian Conquest to turn the tables on Coolangatta from the Magic Millions is the recent run under her belt. 12. Fireburn has the right form lines and will be strong at the finish. 11. Queen Of The Ball’s chances hinge on how aggressively 3. Best Of Bordeaux and 7. Rise Of The Masses are ridden in the early stages.

How To Play It: She’s Extreme WIN

Race 9 – 5:20PM FURPHY GALAXY (1100 METRES)

5. Overpass raced without luck over the spring behind the top tier three-year-old sprinters but you didn’t need much intuition to realise he was better than his finishing positions suggested. He should have run second to Home Affairs in the G1 Coolmore. He has proved that true over the autumn, with an opportunistic ride from Tim Clark landing the G2 Expressway Stakes first up where he beat Forbidden Love and Anamoe. He then chased home Lost And Running second up before doing what was expected of him last start down the Flemington straight when a $1.70 pop. Clark jumps back on for the Galaxy and drawn barrier 1, he’ll be cuddled up on the fence waiting for his chance to pounce. The handicapper hasn’t missed him with 56kg but he sets up well.

Dangers: Would be very keen on the chances of 11. Paulele with 53kg on his back in a frantically run Galaxy if not for the widest draw. He is a three-year-old capable of reeling off huge closing splits. He meets 4. In The Congo a whopping 9kg better off from the Rosebud first up last preparation where he won by a gap. 15. Shelby Sixtysix runs for the eighth time in nine weeks! He gave last year’s brilliant Galaxy winner Eduardo a scare in the Challenge Stakes at weight for age. Here he is with 52.5kg on the back of a dominant Maurice McCarten win. Explosive Queensland mare 8. Isotope has finished outside of the top two in just two of her 11 starts and she lost her rider in one of those. 14. Belluci Babe has never raced better and have always thought 1100m has been her best trip. 2. Big Parade will be at the mercy of the early tempo.

How To Play It: Overpass WIN

Race 10 – 5:55PM TAB BIRTHDAY CARD STAKES (1200 METRES)

11. Geist found herself in front in the Wenona Girl first up on a heavy track and faded to finish a well beaten fifth, four lengths away from Belluci Babe who sat on her shoulder throughout. She had her chance tempo-wise but had never led in any of her 19 previous starts and she had never won first up in the past either. What her record does tell us though is that she tends to improve sharply second up (4:2-0-1). There is very little speed engaged in this race on paper and although we shouldn’t expect her to find the front, she won’t be too far away in the run. That looks a huge advantage given the likely shape of this race. Second up last campaign she ran home powerfully to beat King Of Sparta. Her normal pattern invites bad luck but if Rachel King can hold a prominent spot, she’ll get every chance.

Dangers: Godolphin are well represented with 7. Emanate another likely beneficiary of the lack of tempo here. The five-year-old had to chase home the flying Rule Of Law last start. Like the set up out to 1200m back to her own sex. 9. Mallory ran home into second behind Mazu last start which should stack up in this and she maps to settle in the first dozen. 3. It’s Me wasn’t suited back to 1000m second up and she should be at her top now third up. 5. Ruby Tuesday might even run a cheeky race if she finds the front. 1. Steinem is a talented mare but imagine this 1200m assignment is just a kick off point for the Queen Of The Turf. Want to follow 6. Samoot through the grades but staying at 1200m from the wide draw isn’t an appealing set up.

How To Play It: Geist EACH WAY

All the entries, form and replays for Saturday’s Golden Slipper Day at Rosehill