Ray And Duff Rosehill Preview
Ray Thomas, The Daily Telegraph
The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the nine races on Golden Rose Day at Rosehill Gardens.
Track: Good 4. Rail: True.
R1 (12.30pm): MONSTAR HCP (1900m)
Dufficy: I want to give Costello another chance. I think he is bursting to win a race. The jockey lost his whip on the turn the other day and that didn’t help his chances. He is racing consistently and gets in with a lightweight. Humbolt Current is another lightweight racing well and has to be right in the mix. High Opinion hasn’t won in 85 weeks but his two runs back have been solid and I liked his run in the Wyong Cup last start. Rapido Chaparro comes out of the midweeks where he scored a big win with a huge weight.
Thomas: I’m also with Costello for all the reasons you mentioned. He is very fit and right down in the weights here, dropping 5kg on his solid last start effort. He gets his chance. I thought Humbolt Current is the danger. He also tumbles 4kg in weight after just missing behind Shock Alert here two weeks ago. Dr Drill is the class horse of the field and with Robbie Dolan’s claim, he gets in with 59.5kg and should be competitive. Rapido Chaparro bolted in last start and might take running down if he gets his own way in front again.
MARKET MOVERS: Rapido Chaparro $3.80-$4.20-$4 ($4,000 @ $4), Costello $5-$4.60, Humboldt Current $3.80-$3.20
R2 (1.05pm): TAB HIGHWAY (1500m)
Dufficy: Lolita Gold is lightly raced mare who did some good things last preparation. She is resuming at 1500m which suggests to me she has done a bit of work. Looking at her barrier trial recently she looks ready to run very well today. Gunga Din is the danger. I just wish it was 1600m but the addition of blinkers may just sharpen him up a bit and he is fully wound up fourth run in from a spell. Moss The Boss is the map horse. He puts himself on the speed from barrier one and will give a huge sight. Vertex was much better last start on a drier track last start and should hold that form.
Thomas: Moss The Boss has put together three very good runs since resuming, he’s drawn to get the right run and is ready to win. In a typically open Highway, I’m leaning his way his over Storm Attack who tried very hard and just missed in a 1400m Highway here last start. Both are at good each way odds. Who’s Shout is racing very consistently and Norm Gardner’s runners are invariably very competitive in Highways. Harbouring won well first-up at Dubbo and is an improving type.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Lolita Gold $11-$8.50, Harbouring $11-$9-$8.50
R3 (1.40pm): HERITAGE STAKES (1100m)
Dufficy: I want to go with the race fitness edge of Catch Me. She showed significant improvement last start against the older mares. She missed the start and was charging to the line. Drawn nicely here and with a better get away here I can see her with the right run to perhaps return to her old form. Accession has had three trials and should be ready. Kerrin McEvoy sticks with him which is a very good sign as he may have had other options. Cosmic Force has had two trials to prepare for his return, his juvenile form was outstanding and he did start favourite in the Golden Slipper. Pandemic is coming back to 1100m which probably suits him.
Thomas: Pandemic was disadvantaged by track tempo and the bias when he lost his unbeaten record when fourth to Yao Dash at Randwick last start. He was brilliant winning his first two starts, including a track record win at Kensington over 1100m. The tempo should be solid and give Pandemic the chance to close late. Cosmic Force is a brilliant young sprinter resuming here. He is giving away race fitness to Pandemic but he is a very classy colt. Bellevue Hill and Accession have loads of ability and Standout has looked highly promising in his two wins.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Cosmic Force $4-$3.60-$3.10 ($500 @ $3.70, $1,000 @ $3.60, $700 @ $3.60, $600 @ $3.40, $500 @ $3.30), Catch Me $13-$10-$11, Pandemic $4-$3.60
R4 (2.15pm): SHANNON STAKES (1500m)
Dufficy: It is hard to get away from the first-up performance of Gem Song behind Arcadia Queen in what looks a high-rating Theo Mark Stakes. The little negative I have is this race is a bit of an afterthought as they were going to go straight to the Epsom next week. But Kris Lees has found a very winnable race, Gem Song’s second-up form is good and I feel he is beautifully placed today. Con Te Partiro is the danger. She never saw daylight at any stage in the Cameron Handicap. Her first-up run before that was great and there is no doubt she is going well enough to be hard to beat. Noire was very good against the bias first-up in a slowly run race. She likes this track and distance. Tom Melbourne is a different horse from barrier one so brace yourself or an upset.
Thomas: Gem Song produced one of those “back me next start” runs that was impossible to ignore in the Theo Marks. This is a touch easier and second-up at 1500m is ideal. Gem Song is my best for the day, Ronnie. Con Te Partiro had no luck at Newcastle and is a talented mare. Mister Sea Wolf ran well in the Tramway first-up and will be improved. Similarly, Noire’s encouraging first-up run suggests she is in for a good spring campaign.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Gem Song $2.25-$2.50, Avantage $8-$5-$5.50, Con Te Partiro $6-$4-$4.40-$4.20
R5 (2.50pm): GOLDEN PENDANT (1400m)
Dufficy: Enticing Star is another of these good mares from Perth. You don’t win eight from 10 starts unless you are pretty good. She has had a similar preparation to Arcadia Queen off a long break winning her two trials, they have taken the blinkers off which is no issue as she has won all her races without blinkers anyway. She looks the bet of the day. Invincibella is a very good mare resuming at 1400m which is the right distance for her to be competitive. Mizzy has had a few favours but continues to get the job done. Dyslexic has had excuses both starts, looks to be flying and gets the right run from barrier one.
Thomas: It’s an interesting preparation Chris Waller has set Enticing Star – first-up at 1400m then three weeks into The Everest. This tells me Enticing Star will be quite forward in condition and ready to win here. Her trials have been very impressive. Champagne Cuddles is a ripper, she was a touch unlucky when resuming, she’s a very genuine mare with an excellent second-up and will make a race of it with Enticing Star. Dyslexic and Mizzy are both racing in good form.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Champagne Cuddles $5-$4, Enticing Star $2.60-$2.80-$2.60 ($1,500 @ $2.80, $600 @ $2.80, $500 @ $2.80, $500 @ $2.70, $5,000 @ $2.60, $500 @ $2.60), Dyslexic $8-$6-$7 ($300 x $150 e/w @ $7/$3)
R6 (3.25pm): COLIN STEPHEN QUALITY (2400m)
Dufficy: I know it is probably not the done thing to do third-up at 2400m on a back-up but Scarlet Dream is a big, strong mare and will stay all day. If she gets an even speed up front she will be very hard to beat. Dabiyr drops significantly in weight and should get the right run. He was the go-to horse for punters earlier in the week. Gayatri is a fit, in-form mare who also gets weight relief and comes off that tough 2400m lead-up. Stampede might be a query on his Rosehill form and at 2400m but he is going to looks the winner for a long way.
Thomas: Master Of Arts is over the odds here. His form has steadily improved with each run this spring and he worked to the line well when fourth in the Newcastle Gold Cup. The Rosehill 2400m suits and at $19, he’s a good gamble. Scarlet Dream was doing her best work on the line behind unplaced behind Finche last week but getting out to 2400m is in her favour. Dabiyr and Gayatri fought out the finish over this course and distance last start and are very good chances down in the weights.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Scarlet Dream $4.50-$4, Gayatri $5-$4.60, Dabiyr $4.20-$2.70-$2.50 ($310 @ $4.20, $358 @ $3.80, $417 @ $3.40)
R7 (4.05pm): GOLDEN ROSE (1400m)
Dufficy: The cream of the crop here. I don’t think Exceedance has done enough wrong to jump off him and we are getting a price here. We all saw how good he was first-up and that style of race didn’t suit him the other day. I’m happy to give him another chance at 1400m. Kubrick is the big improver. He definitely needed the run first-up and was still very good. He has the draw to be a length or two closer here and should be in the finish. Yes Yes Yes is similar. These two Waller colts were one run behind the other colts that beat them in the Run To The Rose and I think both have a lot of improvement in them. Hard to knock Bivouac except his price at $2.30 against such a competitive field.
Thomas: Great race. Exceedance has produced the best closing sectionals in each of his four starts, winning twice. He was brilliant beating Bivouac in the San Domenico then, although he looked to have his chance in the Run To The Rose, it was difficult to make ground out wider on the track that day. Exceedance still came home in 32.59s for the final 600m to finish third. I just feel his acceleration gives him a decisive edge, particularly at 1400m. Bivouac has an admirable racing pattern and will give himself every chance again. Yes Yes Yes and Kubrick were competitive first-up in the Run To The Rose and will be fitter.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Castelvecchio $13-$10 ($500 @ $11, $450 e/w @ $10/$2.50), Bivouac $3.20-$2.70-$2.50 ($500 @ $3.10, $500 @ $3, $420 @ $3, $600 @ $2.90, $5,000 x $3,978 e/w @ $2.70/$1.30, $4,000 @ $2.50), Yes Yes Yes $4.50-$6 ($500 e/w @ $6/$1.85, $500 @ $5.50), Exceedance $4.50-$5 ($500 @ $5, $1,000 @ $4.60), Yao Dash $8-$5.50-$6 ($500 @ $7, $300 @ $5.50)
R8 (4.45pm): GLOAMING STAKES (1800m)
Dufficy: I thought Shadow Hero’s effort in the Dulcify was the run of the day when he resumed. He is another one of these strong young stayers Mark Newnham has in his stable. I wish it was 2000m but I can’t let him go after that first-up run. Just Thinkin’ is the danger. He is a real prospect who owned the Dulcify. He has quality and will be hard to run down again. These two New Zealanders, Quick Thinker and Rhaegar come out of the Ming Dynasty first-up on that heavy track and both have improvement to come.
Thomas: We’ve gone the same way again, Ronnie, as I’m also keen on Shadow Hero. He hit the line strongly behind Just Thinkin’ in the Dulcify and can turn the tables here at 1800m. Just Thinkin’ has led and dominated in both starts this campaign. He’s very promising and will make a real race of this again. I think they are the main winning chances with Fasano an improving type while Quick Thinker has to be included among the main chances after his impressive last-start Rosehill win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Shadow Hero $4.60-$3.80-$4 ($800 @ $3.80), Sirmaze $101-$41
R9 (5.25pm): SYDNEY’S WEST HCP (1400m)
Dufficy: I’m amazed how good Amangiri went in her first preparation, you don’t often see fillies go from a maiden all the way to Group 1 level. I just feel she has more upside than most here and with 53kg on her back she might be too good for them. Ranier has been set-up beautifully with a month between runs and an easy trial since his second-up run. Murillo is third-up with blinkers and although I wish he had drawn a little better I’m not letting him get away from me as I’m convinced he has more to offer. Juventus gets some weight relief and has his hoof on the till.
Thomas: Murillo is set-up to run well. His two runs back have been sound and I think he has been looking for 1400m. He’s ready to wjn. I understand where you are coming from with Amangiri. She is probably the best horse in this race and her debut race campaign was very impressive. She did trial very well at Rosehill and although 1400m is a touch short of her best, she has the class and acceleration to be right in the finish. Juventus is racing well and gets in nicely at the weights. Baller has struggled at stakes level this campaign but is back in his right grade here.
SHAYNE O’CASS’S TOP PICKS
KIRWAN’S LANE (Race 2, No.5)
Progressive colt from the John O’Shea camp looks tailor made for the mile on a big track like Kembla. Has a future beyond this.
JUST SOCIETY (Race 3, No.5)
Another of the O’Shea team, this well-bred Dissident colt was tipped out after the one (unsuccessful) run here in June but has really looked the goods in his trials.
BLESK (Race 8, No.11)
A hat-trick for O’Shea hopefully, the master of the Savabeel breed has a nice one here in Blesk who was impressive winning on debut.
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
CHAD LEVER and JEFF PENZA will be like Bonecrusher and Our Waverley Star here, stride for stride in the TAB Jockeys Challenge. Maybe it’s Lever by a nose.
Race 5: 4,10,12, Race 6: 6, Race 7: 1,6,7,8, Race 8: 3,11.
HOUSE WINS (Race 1, No.4)
Cleverly-named son of Dubleo as in ‘00’ on the roulette table. This horse would only need to run up to his last start and he should get the win.
TRACK FLASH (Race 5, No.4)
Picnic Cup star who can take home another trophy, this one the Manilla Cup. Has placed at all of the past five runs.