Flemington Late Mail
It’s hard to go past the favourite in the opening race of the day. Zoutori has returned in excellent order this prep and he handled straight racing with aplomb when he ran third to Sunlight and Santa Ana Lane at Flemington in the Gilgai Stakes.
EACH WAY RACE 2: GROUP 2 WAKEFUL STAKES (2000M) 12:20PM
Walking Flying did not get it all her own way when she went up against the boys at Caulfield last start. She is only a small filly and she had to bullock her way through for clear running and she ran home well. She is bred to get over ground and the step up to the big track and the 2000m suits. I don’t except the $18 will last long and she is worth an each way bet at that price.
This is a very difficult race to try and sum up. I thought Grounswell was the horse to back coming out of the Caulfield Guineas. He was side by side with Dalasan but he actually picked back up late and hit the line well.
EACH WAY RACE 4: GROUP 3 HOTHAM STAKES (2500M) 1:40PM
I’m finding it tough to get away from the New Zealander Sir Charles Road who has run well each time he has stepped out this prep. He didn’t get clear running in the St Leger last start and Flemington will suit him. He should be plenty fit for this assignment trying to gain a run in the Cup on Tuesday where he ran well last year.
Melody Belle is a star mare and if she can bring her New Zealand form to Australia she will be extremely difficult to beat.
The market continues to get the price wrong on Savatiano in my opinion. Even after a dominant win in the Tristarc Stakes at Caulfield they are betting $9.00? I’ve snapped that up before she shortens.
This is always a fascinating race and the 2019 edition of the Coolmore Stud Stakes is no different. Bivouac is a star colt and is the rightful favourite but I’m happy to take him on after he was knocked about in the Manikato Stakes. I have a big wrap on Libertini who has been freshened up for this assignment. She is a very well balanced filly and I think the Flemington straight will suit her down to a tee.
BEST BET RACE 7: GROUP 1 VICTORIA DERBY (2500M) 3:45PM
There has been some controversy into the switch of riders on the colt leading into the Derby. Although I am sympathetic toward Linda Meech losing the ride I think Mark Zahra will do just fine. His win at Caulfield was dominant and he should get a lovely run in transit from the inside barrier. Is the one to beat in the feature event of the day.
Night’s Watch seems the obvious choice for mine coming out of the Victorian form. His three runs have been threatening this prep and he didn’t get it all his way last time out when chasing home Fierce Impact. He also meets that horse 2kgs better at the weights and has drawn far better.
I think the Epsom Handicap form will hold up and Rock was very good when beaten only four lengths. He was doing his best work late in that race and gets in well again under handicap conditions. $10 seems overs for mine.
Manicure is a very consistent mare at this level and she is racing well at the moment. The big open track at Flemington should suit the mare and she will be tough to beat again.
I thought Prophet’s Thumb represented some good value to finish the day also. She didn’t get it all her own way last start in the straight and with even luck she will run nice race at each way odds.