ThoroughBred Racing

Blue Diamond Stakes Preview

Blue Diamond Stakes Preview

 

 

Caulfield Race 8 – Sportsbet Blue Diamond Stakes – 1200m

1. Rue De Royale $41 (Ladbrokes fixed-win odds at time of publishing)

Why he can win: Solid run first-up in the Inglis Millenium in Sydney, where he charged late to finish second to Fully Lit. Should suit the rise in distance to 1200m.

Why he can’t win: Wide draw means he will either need to burn across and use petrol early or go back and concede ground to the key chances in the race.

2. Spywire $27

Why he can win: Ran well behind benchmark juvenile Storm Boy in a high-rating Magic Millions Classic on the Gold Coast in January. High quality colt prepared by a leading stable and looked sharp winning a recent jumpout at Cranbourne.

Why he can’t win: Extreme outside barrier makes the task a little more difficult, as he is a speed horse and may be forced to work overtime if he is to find a forward position.

4. Coleman $3.50

Why he can win: Unbeaten colt and looked brilliant winning the Chairman’s Stakes here three weeks ago. Has the ability to show early speed and has savaged the line in two victories to date.

Why he can’t win: Might be clutching at straws, but the slight query could be whether he is just a little too brilliant for 1200m.

5. Stay Focused $13

Why he can win: Terrific win on debut in the Geelong Diamond before showing speed and sticking on well, despite a wide run, to place second in the Blue Diamond Prelude behind Bodyguard. If that is considered the premier form line, he doesn’t need to improve too much to be right in the conversation.

Why he can’t win: Wide draw could leave him posted deep like he was in the Prelude, and that left him vulnerable at the end of 1100m, let alone now rising in distance to 1200m.

6. Dublin Down $46

Why he can win: Terrific winner of the Group 3 Maribyrnong Plate at Flemington in November and looks as though he has come on judging by his brilliant recent trial win.

Why he can’t win: Never raced beyond 1000m and now tackles a high pressure 1200m race first-up following only one jumpout.

7. Traffic Warden $34

Why he can win: Yet to run poorly in all three starts, placing second on debut to Storm Boy before a solid win at Caulfield and then a last-start third in the Canonbury Stakes in Sydney. Prepared by a leading stable and looks suitable to the rise in distance to 1200m.

Why he can’t win: Maps awkwardly from the draw and taking on a higher quality of opposition in this contest.

8. High Octane $6

Why he can win: Brilliant winner of the Blue Diamond Preview on debut and then simply had no luck at a crucial stage when held up on the fence from barrier one last start. Hard to say with confidence that he should have won, but it’s fair to assume he would have been fighting out the finish. Should get plenty of room from barrier 10 to wind up at the finish.

Why he can’t win: Tough to find reasons why he can’t win, but a minor issue may be the has he hoof filler applied for the first time. It’s generally only minor, but can sometimes reveal that the stable are trying to rectify an issue with the horse’s feet.

9. Zestiman $51

Why he can win: Solid debut win and then held his own when tested in the $2 million Inglis Millenium in Sydney last start. Winkers go on and looks suited out to 1200m.

Why he can’t win: Depth of this race is a lot stronger than previous starts and didn’t appear to have any excuses last start.

10. Fearless $34

Why he can win: Debut run in the Breeders Plate was quality and then recorded impressive late sectionals last start in the Canonbury Stakes behind Prost, suggesting he would relish the rise in trip to 1200m. Boasts a lot of raw ability and clearly is open to further improvement.

Why he can’t win: Likely to go back from the wide draw and will be a long way from the key rivals in the run if that is the case. Still very green and learning his craft.

11. Hayasugi $17

Why she can win: Recorded back-to-back wins in the fillies division of the Blue Diamond Preview and Prelude, and in doing so had to travel wide and cover a lot more ground than her rivals. Her time/rating was almost identical to the males division of the Prelude and the step up to 1200m looks as though it will suit.

Why she can’t win: Both victories have only been narrow and now taking on stronger opposition and male opposition. Could also need luck early to get in to an ideal position from the draw.

12. Eneeza $11

Why she can win: Brilliant winner of the Merson Cooper Stakes in December and only had one trial prior to her run in the Chairman’s Stakes, so she should be open to further improvement here. She was ridden conservatively last start behind Coleman and couldn’t catch him over 1000m, but may improve out to 1200m.

Why she can’t win: Finished three lengths off Coleman last start, so clearly has ground to make up on one of the key chances. Never raced beyond 1000m, so could also be a slight query at the trip.

13. Lady Of Camelot $4.60

Why she can win: Ran super quick time winning the Widden Stakes at Rosehill last start, powering to the lead from the inside draw and racing clear in the home straight to win by a margin. Has the speed to use the inside draw and prepared by the leading stable of juveniles this season.

Why she can’t win: Had a few favours given the track pattern at Rosehill last start and now stepping out to 1200m and taking on stronger opposition.

14. Kuroyanagi $14

Why she can win: Huge run in defeat when a close second to Hayasugi in the fillies Blue Diamond Prelude. That was only her second career start and clearly she is open to further improvement. Maps for a nice run just behind the speed and should be in the race for a long way.

Why she can’t win: Had a lovely run last start and couldn’t hold out the winner at the end of 1100m and now she needs to stretch her brilliance to 1200m against stronger opposition.

15. Matisse $18

Why she can win: Huge run from the tail of the field in the fillies Prelude and did a remarkable job to get within half a length of the winner. Looks like she is crying out for 1200m off that run and could possibly be closer to the action from barrier one.

Why she can’t win: Might struggle for room to wind up and get in to the race at a key stage if she happens to be buried along the fence in the run.

16. Flyer $101

Why she can win: Solid win on debut in a maiden at Sandown that was run in quick time for 1200m. Form out of the race solid, with Barbaric Lad winning at Pakenham on Thursday. She is the only horse in the field to have won at the trip, albeit in easier company.

Why she can’t win: Huge jump in grade going from a maiden straight in to G1 company. She had a lovely run from an ideal draw on debut and is unlikely to get a similar passage here from barrier 13.

17. In Her Eyes $51

Why she can win: Sneaks in to the field with the scratching of Bodyguard. She recorded the quickest last 200m of the entire meeting last start when only a few lengths behind Hayasugi. She was forced to go back to last from the outside barrier on that occasion and could potentially be closer here from a better draw.

Why she can’t win: Still a maiden and was easily held against easier opposition last start.

18. Altermatum $101

Why she can win: Worked to the line well behind Hayasugi and looks as though she will be suited to the rise to 1200m.

Why she can’t win: Might struggle to get in to the field and clearly has to improve to beat the fillies, let alone the colts and geldings.

 

SELECTIONS

4. Coleman

12. Eneeza

8. High Octane

11. Hayasugi

Racing.com’s Brent Zerafa explains why your horse can or can’t win the Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes at Caulfield